Sunday, February 27, 2011

聽趨勢說話

錢的個性

錢喜歡物以類聚。
錢很害羞。
錢喜歡跟同類在一起,才有安全感。
錢不喜歡獨處。
錢很勢利,喜歡富人,不喜歡窮人。
愛聚集,且喜歡招朋引伴,安全或危險不重要。
聚的越多,聲勢越大,吸引力越大。

操作心法

股票沒有量,不會漲,也不會跌。
量一定要大於6日均量,才算大量。
量大三日,必有蹊蹺。
底部量大三日(越大越好),配合價揚,可買。
高價不漲(含跌價),放大量,宜出。
底部放量後,量縮小,價不破可買進。
高價放量,價不創新高,量收小,出股票。
價盤,量走弱,不玩。
以一年的 K 線圖,和成交量來判斷。
大盤的勢,大於個股的勢,不可逆大盤的勢。

停損

三天不賺砍股票。
損失10%砍股票。
已經損失了10%,不必等3天就砍。
不可手軟。
設停損,不設停利。
股價上揚,到達滿足點,回檔賣出,也是停損的形式,永遠要賣在已經走弱的價之後,唯有這樣才能知道,股價能把你帶到什麼價位去,而不是賣在後悔的股價裡。
寧願停損十次,不願套牢一次。
停損有時後是大勢所迫,而不是個股的失誤。
不要怕錯,能改才能生存。
商人無祖國,投資無忠誠。

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

費波南希數列為波浪理論的結構基礎

艾略特,波浪理論的開山祖師,在公開發表波浪理論時,指出股市走勢依據一定的模式發展,漲落之間,各種波浪有節奏地重復出現,艾略特創立的波浪理論,屬於一整套精細的分析工具,包括下列三個課題:1、波浪運行的形態;2、浪與浪之間的比率;3、時間星期。

艾略特在1946年發表的第二本著作,索性就命名為《大自然的規律》(Nature's Law)。波浪理論第二個重要課題,係浪與浪之間的比率。艾略特在《大自然的規律》一書中談到,其波浪理論的數位基礎是一系列的數列,是費波南希在13世紀時所發現的,因此,此數列一般稱之謂費波南希數列。
費波南希數列本身屬於一個極為簡單的數位系列,但其間展現的各種特點,令人對大自然奧秘,感嘆玄妙之餘,更多一份敬佩。其實早在中國《道德經》第四十三章中就道出了神奇數位系列的真諦:“道生一,一生二,二生三,三生萬物。”神奇數位系列包括下列數位:1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610,987,1597……直至無限。
構成費波南希神奇數位系列的基礎非常簡單,由1,2,3開始,產生無限數位系列,而3,實際上為1與2之和,以後出現的一系列數位,全部依照上述簡單的原則,兩個連續出現的相鄰數位相加,等於一個後面的數位。例如3加5等於8,5加8等於13,8加13等於21,……直至無限。表面看來,此一數位系列很簡單,但背後卻隱藏著無窮的奧妙。
二、平方的秘密
俄羅斯著名數學家韋羅斯利夫,曾經發表的神奇數位研究論文報告中,提示許多有關斐波南希神奇數位的神秘性,其中之一就是神奇數位平方的秘密。
1、由1開始,可能隨意選取連續出現的相鄰兩神奇數位,數目可不限,先將這些神奇數位進行平方,然後將平方所得數位進行相加,其和必定等於最後一個神奇數位與接著出現的下一個神奇數位相乘。
2、除了上述出現的兩個連續出現的神奇數位的平方具有的神奇的關係外,還具有兩個相隔出現的神奇數位平方的神奇關係。其方法就是兩相隔神奇數位的高位神奇數位的平方減去低位神奇數位的平方,兩平方數位之差的結果必然屬於另一個神奇數位。例:5×5-2×2=21 8×8-3×3=55 13×13-5×5=144……。
三、神奇數位比率
波浪比波浪之間的比例,經常出現的數位,包括0.236, 0.382, 0.618以及1.618等,這些數位中的0.382和0.618我們亦稱之為黃金分割比率。實際上,上述比率的來源,亦來自於神奇數位系列。
1、 在斐波南希的神奇數位系列中,任取相鄰兩神奇數位,將低位的神奇數位比上高位的神奇數位,其計算的結果會逐漸接近於0.618,數值位愈高的數位,其比率會更接近於0.618。
2、 在斐波南希的神奇數位系列中,任取相鄰兩神奇數位,若與上述相反,將高位的神奇數位比上低位的神奇數位,則其計算的結果會漸漸趨近於1.618。同理,數值位取得愈高,則此比率會愈接近於1.618。
3、 若取相鄰隔位兩個神奇數位相除,則透過高位與低位兩數位的交換,可分別得到接近於038.2及2.618的比率。
4、 將0.382與0.618兩個重要的神奇數位比率相乘則可得另一重要的神奇數位比率:0.382×0.618=0.236上述幾個由神奇數位演變出來的重要比率:0.236,0.382,2.618以及0.5(其中0.236和0.618是著名的黃金分割比率)是波浪理論中預測未來的高點或低點的重要工具。
四、神奇數位與股價波浪
在波浪理論的範疇內,多頭市況階段可以由一個上升浪代表,亦可以劃分為五個小浪,或者進一步劃分為二十一個次級浪甚至還可以繼續細分出長至八十九個細浪,對於空頭市況階段,則可以由一個大的下跌浪代表,同樣對一個大的下跌浪可以劃分為三個次級波段。或者可以進一步地再劃分出十三個低一級的波浪甚至最後可看到五十五個細浪。
綜上所述,我們可以不難理解地得出這樣的結論,一個完整的升跌迴圈,可以劃分為二、八、三十四或一百四十四個波浪。在此不難發現,上面出現的數目字,包括1、2、3、5、8、13、21、34、55、89及144,全部都屬於神奇數位系列。
浪與浪之間的比率關係,亦經常受到斐波南希神奇數位組合比率的影響,下面我們介紹神奇比率與度量浪與浪之間的比例關係的具體運用:
1、對於推動浪來說,如果推動浪中的一個子浪成為延伸浪的話,則其他兩個推動浪不管其運行的幅度還是運行的時間,都將會趨向於一致。也就是說,當推動浪中的第三浪在走勢中成為延伸浪時,則其他兩個推動浪,第一浪與第五浪的升幅和運行時間將會大致趨於相同。假如並非完全相等。則極有可能以0.618的關係相互維繫。
2、第五浪最終目標,可以根據第一浪浪底至第二浪浪頂距離來進行預估,他們之間的關係,通常亦包含有神奇數位組合比率的關係。
3、對於A-B-C三波段調整浪來說,C浪的最終目標值可能根據A浪的幅度來預估。C浪的長度,在實際走勢中,會經常是A浪的1.618倍。當然我們也可以用下列公式預測C浪的下跌目標:A浪浪底減A浪乘0.618。
4、對於對稱三角形的整理形態的波浪走勢來看,在對稱三角形內,每個浪的升跌幅度與其他浪的比率,通常以0.618的神奇比例互相維繫。
艾略特波浪理論常出現例外情形,以下為重要定律:
1. 分析時著重於計算(定位)出完整的波浪週期。
2. 計算出完整的波浪後再輔以費波南希數列推算幅度及時間轉折。
3. 第四浪的低點不可低於第一浪的高點。
4. 第三浪不可是最短的浪,而且大多是最長的浪。
5. 波浪理論主要反應群的眾心理,易於被人為操縱的市場並不適用。

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Finding Lost

Finding Lost
By Li Chiao
Treatment

Back Story
In the southern sector of Taiwan, there is a small village named Kularlau where the Paiwan tribe lives. There is a legend about the origin of their treasured artifact-- ancient colored lazurite beads. A long time ago, there was an Immortal who came to earth by transforming into a peacock’s figure. When the peacock flew through the sky, it spread many ancient colored lazurite beads to the land. Those beads made everything grow. The Paiwan people handed over those beads to their chieftain who preserved them in their ancient clay pots, and interpreted them as auspicious symbols. The old saying went: “It is going to be a calamity for this small tribe if they lose those ancient beads. There will be a chosen one who will find them all and then become the most brilliant leader in this tribe.”

Act 1
State 1
After hundreds of years, a little girl, Vusam, is born. She is the first-born child in the chieftain’s home. According to the Paiwan tribe’s tradition, the firstborn has to inherit her parents’ property. However, she refuses to learn any traditional customs, and even doesn’t want to take her responsibility to inherit her mother’s tribal position, as a Paiwan tribe’s leader. She doesn’t believe in any Paiwan’s tradition. However, the psychic in this small village has wanted to take over the chieftain’s position for a long time. She knows how important those ancient colored lazurite beads are. She steals the ancient clay pot where the beads are inside from the chieftain’s house, and smashes the pot on purpose. She takes the most important one “mulimulidan” and puts it in her witchcraft box. When she breaks the clay pot, all things change. The sky turns into dark and thunders; all the villagers are in a panic. At the same time, the psychic turns her shape huge because of triumphant, and she is looking for any chance to kill Vusam to insure her status.

State 2
Vusam’s mother has been sick and bed-ridden since the day the beads were stolen. She tells Vusam that the ancient colored beads have disappeared and asks Vusam to find them and bring them back, because Vusam is going to be the next leader in this tribe. Vusam doesn’t want to do that because she doesn’t believe how important those beads are and doesn’t want to take this responsibility. However, seeing her mother’s desponding eyes, Vusam can’t turn down her mother’s request. When she brings herself to go to the journey, all the villagers mock at her. They don’t’ believe that the little girl can find the beads and be the next chieftain. However, she still has to start her adventure into the unknown.

ACT II
State 1
“ Why should I do this kind of thing? I don’t want to find those stupid beads. It’s none of my business!” Vusam thinks and walks into the forbidden bamboo forest unconsciously. She hears a loud noise and sees a Hundred-paced Viper is attacked by a cuckoo. Seeing the viper hurts badly, Vusam remembers that the Hundred-paced Viper is sacred and inviolable in the Paiwan tribe’s tradition. Therefore, Vusam helps the Hundred-paced Viper oust the cuckoo. The cuckoo is the transformation of the psychic. She flies away and leaves her laughter around the sky. The Viper curls up himself and transforms into a male figure. He is the guardian spirit of the Paiwan tribe’s chieftain. His name is Pomatzamatza. Pomatzamatza thanks for Vusam’s help and is willing to go with her to collect the ancient colored beads. He tells Vusam that the psychic is trying to kill her in any way, so she has to find those beads very soon to stop the psychic. Otherwise, the psychic will take the village over, and her mother will be in danger. She has no choice but to go with Pomatzamatza, because she is worried about her mother. Then Vusam and Pomatzamatza set out to find the beads.

State 2
Pomatzamatza and Vusam keep walking to find those beads. There is a stone carving under the tree, which is a statue of the Paiwan tribe’s spirit. He tells them there are three beads they must find out. One is “mulimulidan” which means the bead of noble. It is the most important bead which can only possess by the chieftain. The psychic hides it on his witchcraft box carefully. Another one is “baloalisabula” which means the bead of the peacock. The psychic hides it in the deep of the bamboo forest, and no one knows where it is. The other one is a secret; even the elder doesn’t know what it is. Vusam and Pomatzamatza decide to go to the deep forest first to find “baloalisabula”. However, the forest is too broad to follow a plain path. They get lost. When they take a rest, a huge boar rushes to them. Vusam is frightened and doesn’t know what to do. She cries. At the same time, Pomatzamatza uses his bronze dagger to fight against the boar, but it is hard to subdued. Vusam tries to help. She makes a bow by the bamboo clapper and shoots the boar. The boar collapses. Vusam wants to kill the boar but Pomatzamatza stops her. He cures the boar’s wound and asks it to leave. He tells Vusam that it is not the right season to hunt according to the Paiwan’s custom. During this period of time, the forest should take a rest, and everything will grow up. After that, they keep going to the psychic’s place.

State 3
“I don’t want to be a chieftain; I don’t want to find those beads!” Vusam cries to Pomatzamatza, when she feels really tired. Pomatzamatza comforts her but Vusam keeps crying. Her sound raises the peacock which has been slept over hundreds of years. When the peacock walks toward to Vusam, everything grows. Vusam is fascinated with the scene she sees. When the peacock touches Vusam’s left hand, there is a hand tattoo appears. She knows that’s the symbol which only belongs to the Paiwan’s nobility. She stops crying. The peacock open its wings, and baloalisabula, the bead of the peacock is inside. Vusam picks the bead up and puts it in her backpack. The peacock looks Vusam for a while and then leaves. After that, Pomatzamatza and Vusam keep going to the psychic’s place.

State 4
The psychic’s place is in the deep forest where the bad spirits are around. The psychic gathers those spirits who have committed suicide and always wander in the forest. Pomatzamatza and Vusam cannot approach the psychic’s place further. Vusam is frightened and thinks that she cannot find the bead. Pomatzamatza comforts her and remembers that the bad spirits are scared to be under the light. Vusam takes out the mirror from her backpack and uses it to reflect the sun from the gap of undergrowth. The spirits soon dissipate. Pomatzamatza and Vusam keep going to the psychic’s home. When they go inside the place, they see the psychic dresses well and holds her witchcraft box tightly. She murmurs something and then becomes enormous. Vusam is stupefied and cannot move anywhere. Pomatzamatza stands out and fights against the psychic. Pomatzamatza gets hurt, because the psychic is too strong to beat off. The psychic keeps attacking Vusam after Pomatzamatza is knocked down. Vusam has no time to think and throws her backpack to the psychic to stop her advancing. The psychic disappears when the backpack hits her, because mulimulidan, the bead of the noble, which inside Vusam’s backpack, has the power to expel any evil. Vusam runs to see Pomatzamatza who is almost dying. Vusam promises Pomatzamatza that she will try her best to be a good leader in her tribe and keep the tradition continue. Pomatzamatza dies and turns into the last bead that Vusam is looking for.

Resolution
Picking up all the beads, Vusam goes back to her tribe. All the villagers welcome her fervently. Vusam’s mother strings the three ancient beads into a necklace and puts them inside the ancient clay pots. She raises Vusam’s hand and tells her people that she is the chosen one the prophecy told. Vusam smiles and holds her mother’s hands firmly. At the same time, her right hand appears the other hand tattoo.

Followers

 

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